The purpose of this study is to examine possible approaches that Japan can undertake to deter a Taiwan contingency.

After Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Taiwan is being eyed as a potential region for the next major conflict. A number of Japanese and U.S. research institutes have conducted wargames on the scenario of a Taiwan contingency. Among them, a Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Report even mentions the state of exhaustion between Taiwan, the United States, and China after the resolution of a Taiwan contingency. This Report has been widely covered by the Japanese media. Many of the wargames present a scenario in which a preemptive attack on U.S. military bases in Japan would be carried out in anticipation of China's invasion of Taiwan. In response to this Report, the U.S. House of Representatives Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party has recommended policy measures such as the dispersal of U.S. military forces to the Indo-Pacific region and strengthening of base defense to mitigate the damage.