2024/09/01
Maritime Security Study Group released "Evaluating the Applicability and Challenges of the Conceptual Model for Hybrid Threat Analysis for Deterrence of a Taiwan Contingency" by Takashi Kawashima (Senior Research Fellow, NPI)
The purpose of this article is to examine and assess the significance and challenges associated with applying the Conceptual Model for Hybrid Threat Analysis to China's hybrid warfare against Taiwan and of utilizing it as a model to deter a Taiwan contingency. The model was developed and reportedly used by the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats (Hybrid CoE) in analyzing Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has elucidated three key lessons for deterring a full-scale military invasion: (1) the importance of preventing invasion by strengthening deterrence (defense buildup), (2) the need to prepare for irrational decision-making, and (3) the importance of addressing combined activities by military and non-military means, what is referred to as hybrid warfare.