Diplomacy and Security Survey Research Project FY2023-2025
Building Response Procedures and a Multilateral Joint Posture to Deter a Taiwan Contingency

Purpose

The Maritime Security Study Group, led by Saito Takashi, former Chief of Staff, Joint Staff, Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF), and consisting of related parties mainly from the Japan Ministry of Defense and JSDF, has been conducting research activities continuously since 2014. The study group is working on a three-year research project "Building Response Procedures and a Multilateral Joint Posture to Deter a Taiwan Contingency" funded by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan in 2023 and conducts research meetings on a monthly basis. The members and activities of the study group in FY2023 are as follows.

Members (honorifics omitted)

Chairman: Saito Takashi, Former Chief of Staff, Joint Staff, JSDF
Study group members:

• Fukumoto Izuru, Former President, Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force Command and Staff College
• Tokuchi Hideshi, Senior Research Advisor, Nakasone Peace Institute; President, Research Institute for Peace and Security
• Hirata Hidetoshi, Former Commander, Air Training Command, Japan Air Self-Defense Force
• Matsumura Goro, Former Commanding General, Northeastern Army, Japan Ground Self-Defense Force
• Nakamura Susumu, Senior Research Fellow, SFC Research Institute, Keio University
• Sato Koichi, Professor, Oberlin University
• Murakami Masatoshi, Associate Professor, Kogakkan University
• Yamamoto Katsuya, Senior Research Fellow, The Sasakawa Peace Foundation
• Yoshida Yukari, Senior Fellow, The National Institute for Defense Studies
• Kawashima Takashi, Senior Research Fellow, Nakasone Peace Institute
• Yasue Mariko, Senior Research Fellow, Nakasone Peace Institute

*The following researchers from Nakasone Peace Institute also participate as cooperating study group members.

• Komine Takao, Senior Research Counselor, Nakasone Peace Institute; Professor, Taisho University
• Nagashima Jun, Senior Research Advisor, Nakasone Peace Institute
• Hirose Yoko, Senior Fellow, Nakasone Peace Institute; Professor, Faculty of Policy Management, Keio University
• Hosoya Yuichi, Senior Fellow, Nakasone Peace Institute; Professor, Faculty of Law, Keio University
• Hisajima Naoto, Senior Research Fellow, Nakasone Peace Institute

Study Group Activities

1st Meeting May 26, 2023

Themes:
(1) Research plan
(2) Conceptual Model for Hybrid Threat Analysis

2nd Meeting June 27, 2023

Theme: Case application to Conceptual Model for Hybrid Threat Analysis

3rd Meeting August 1, 2023

Theme: Future research procedures

4th Meeting September 15, 2023

Theme: Hybrid threat analysis procedures

5th Meeting October 27, 2023

Theme: Examination of methods of hybrid threat activity

6th Meeting November 17, 2023

Themes:
(1) Discussion of research report for FY2023
(2) Preparation for the 1st exchange of opinions with the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats (Hybrid CoE)

7th Meeting January 23, 2024

Themes:
(1) Discussion of research report for FY2023
(2) Preparation for the 2nd exchange of opinions with the Hybrid CoE
(3) Business trips to the Hybrid CoE and others

8th Meeting February 29, 2024

Themes:
(1) Report on business trips to the Hybrid CoE and others
(2) Discussion of research report for FY2023
(3) Research plan for FY2024

Exchange of opinions with the Hybrid CoE

1st Session December 13, 2023 (online)

Theme: Analysis using the Conceptual Model for Hybrid Threat Analysis

2nd Session January 25, 2024 (online)

Theme: How to analyze hybrid threats, etc.

3rd Session February 14, 2024 (Hybrid CoE)

Themes:
(1) How to analyze hybrid threats, etc.
(2) Checking the progress of the research
(3) Future research collaboration

Webinar

Research Notes / Commentary

Deterring a Taiwan Contingency -A Study of Japan's Approach - by Kawashima Takashi (Senior Research Fellow, NPI)

The Essential Mechanism of Hybrid Warfare--"Fight in the cognitive space" integrating military and non-military means to achieve the ultimate objectives --" by Goro Matsumura (Former Commanding General Northeastern Army, Japan Ground Self-Defense Force)

Research Report for FY2023

"Building Response Procedures and a Multilateral Joint Posture to Deter a Taiwan Contingency," Part 1: Analysis of the European Hybrid CoE Conceptual Model, Assumptions for Developing a Research Model, and Hybrid Threat Case Studies

*This study is funded by a grant from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan for research and study on diplomacy and security projects adopted in FY2023.