On May 20, 2024, Lai Ching-te assumed office as Taiwan's president, replacing Tsai Ing-wen. In this webinar, we discussed the impact of the birth of Taiwan's new administration on U.S.-China-Japan-Taiwan relations.
Panelists
Matsuda Yasuhiro, Professor, The University of Tokyo
Fukuda Madoka, Professor, Faculty of Law, Hosei University; Visiting Fellow, NPI
Moderator
Kawashima Shin, Executive Director of Research, NPI
On the day of the webinar, a lively discussion took place with a large number of participants from government ministries and agencies, corporations, researchers, and the mass media. The main points of the discussions are as follows.
As a result of the January presidential and legislative elections, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) maintained power, but it was reduced to a minority party in the legislature, resulting in the birth of a "weak DPP government."
Lai received just over 40% of the vote, and it is believed that the stagnation in his support was due to the floating votes of young people dissatisfied with the DPP moving to the Taiwan People's Party (TPP). In the legislative election, the DPP surpassed the Kuomintang (KMT) in both number and percentage of votes, but the KMT, which has strength in rural areas and on outlying islands, was helped by electoral districts to become the largest party.
With the KMT unable to find a strong candidate for the next presidential election, and the TPP caught up in a leadership struggle between Ko Wen-je and Huang Kuo-chang, if this three-way deadlock continues, there is a possibility that Lai, supported by a solid base of supporters, will be re-elected in the next presidential election, and the DPP will continue in power for 16 years.
The inaugural speech delivered by President Lai on May 20, 2024 reflected the current state of cross-strait relations and was received favorably by the Taiwanese people, but China reacted strongly to it.
Although the speech continued the policy of "maintaining the status quo," the premise of the "status quo" itself had changed. The status quo under the Tsai administration was the stable cross-strait relations that was established under the Ma administration, but under the Lai administration, the cross-strait relations that deteriorated under the Tsai administration is the status quo.
The speech prominently used the word "Taiwan" rather than "Republic of China Taiwan" which was used by the Tsai administration, giving the impression of distancing itself from China. This is also supported by the historical perspective, suggesting that the Republic of China began in 1949, rather than with Sun Yat-sen's Xinhai Revolution.
Furthermore, the speech alluded to Taiwan's independence by adapting a previous speech by Lee Teng-hui, emphasizing not being subordinate to each other from the "Four Commitments" proposed by Tsai Ing-wen, and promoting Taiwan's place in the global community, all of which were provocative to China.
In terms of the economy, there have been calls for the return of Taiwanese businessmen to Taiwan, suggesting a further reduction in economic dependence on China in the future.
The Lai administration will face difficulties over the next four years in both domestic affairs and cross-strait relations.
In domestic politics, with the DPP now in the minority, the opposition parties have taken the lead in decisions related to personnel, budgets and legislation. The KMT, as the largest party, was unable to secure a majority, and the third-ranked TPP holds the casting vote. A bill to strengthen the authority of the Legislative Yuan was recently passed through a forceful vote after the TPP supported the KMT's proposal. In response, large-scale protest demonstrations by Taiwanese citizens erupted. As the TPP has similar views to the DPP in the area of security, there is a possibility that it will adopt a more flexible approach in the future.
Since the Tsai administration took office, communication between China and Taiwan has been cut off. President Lai's inaugural speech included the contents that China had not anticipated, which may have led to a delay in China's response as it took time to analyze them. Furthermore, while military intimidation was prepared in advance, live ammunition drills were restrained around Taiwan. The Taiwanese public responded calmly to such military intimidation, and Taiwan's stock market rose.
Since President Xi Jinping took office, China has changed the policies of cooperation with the U.S. and peaceful unification of Taiwan that had been built up since the era of Deng Xiaoping, acquiring the ability to unify Taiwan by force through rapid military expansion. U.S.-China relations have deteriorated, and China's high-pressure response to Taiwan backed by its military and economic power, combined with the end of the one country, two systems policy in Hong Kong, has made peaceful unification through negotiations seem hopeless. The policies put forward by the Xi administration appear to contain contradictions in which the effects of individual policies cancel each other out, and as a whole they appear to lack flexibility and strategic vision.
It is expected that China will continue to put pressure on the new administration by mobilizing military intimidation as well as economic coercion and cognitive warfare. It is unlikely that China will resort to the use of force before the next presidential election four years from now, but it is expected that China will continue to support the opposition party behind the scenes in an effort to bring about a change of government. Young people who supported the TPP in the previous presidential election could become targets of cognitive warfare, but as the recent protest demonstrations showed, it is important to note that "anti-DPP = anti-independence" is not necessarily the case.
Former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo attended the presidential inauguration ceremony, and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken sent a congratulatory message. China responded by citing U.N. General Assembly Resolution 2758 and expressed "strong dissatisfaction." There was even a claim that President Lai's inaugural speech was a "conspiracy" coordinated with the U.S. in advance.
While the U.S. has declared that it will maintain the "One China" policy, in practice the situation is changing dramatically. Congress passed Taiwan-related legislation and expanded support for Taiwan, which allows the quick transfer of U.S. military weapons to Taiwan under presidential authority using U.S. funds, unlike the situation with Ukraine. The U.S. military also trains Taiwan's forces, and special forces personnel are stationed in Taiwan, making U.S.-Taiwan relations a de facto alliance. Bipartisan support for Taiwan is strong in Congress, so it is not expected to be affected by the presidential election in November 2024. However, former President Trump is said to have a somewhat limited understanding of the delicate East Asia situation. Recently, Trump was reported to have said that "if China were to invade Taiwan, the U.S. would bomb Beijing."
From Japan, the largest delegation to date was sent, and the wife of the late Prime Minister Abe also attended the inauguration ceremony. President Lai spared time in his busy schedule to meet with each of the delegates, showing gracious hospitality. In response, the Chinese ambassador to Japan made a statement warning, "If Japan contributes to China's division, the Japanese people will be dragged into the fire," sparking a backlash from Japan.
Japan's future role will be to maintain and strengthen deterrence against China based on the Japan-U.S. alliance, while working to mitigate China's attempt to isolate Taiwan through diplomatic channels including parliamentary diplomacy.
The recognition that "a Taiwan contingency is a Japan contingency" is widespread in Taiwan, and the Lai administration has high expectations of Japan. It is important for Japan and Taiwan to work together to send a message to China.
Regarding tensions between China and Taiwan, it is necessary for the U.S.-China and Japan-China leaders to appropriately manage relations through summit talks and other dialogues in order to ensure regional stability.
