2025/03/27
Has the South China Sea Become Turbulent Because of the Taiwan Issue? Analysis of China-Philippines Relations in 2023-2024 China-Taiwan Study Group, Commentary No.5 by Sakabe-Mori Aki (Assistant Professor, University of Tsukuba)
In recent years, as China has intensified its military activities around Taiwan, the Xi Jinping regime's intentions to unify Taiwan and related pressures on Taiwan have attracted public attention,2 but U.S. China competition over the Philippines, which is located south of Taiwan, and the Philippines'response to that competition have received disproportionately little attention. In April 2023, the Philippine government granted additional U.S. military access to four Philippine military bases, including two in northern Luzon Island near Taiwan, under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) with the United States. From February 2023, when this decision was announced, to the present day of writing this commentary in February 2025, the Philippines continues to suffer from increasingly intensified non-military coercion by China in the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea). There appears to be a correlation between the U.S.-China competition over Taiwan and China's pressure on the Philippines in the South China Sea.