On June 9, 2025, Nakasone Peace Institute (NPI) held a special seminar entitled "How to Deal with Major Powers under Uncertainty," welcoming Mr. Robert Ward, Director of Geo-economics, Japan Chair; Senior Fellow for Japanese Security Studies at The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a partner organization in the United Kingdom.

The seminar opened with remarks from Aso Taro, NPI Chairman. Chairman Aso noted that since inauguration of the Trump administration on January 20, 2025, while various statements by President Trump have drawn considerable attention, the administration's demands for increased defense spending from allies and calls for cooperation in revitalizing U.S. manufacturing are not short-term policy shifts but rather reflect deeper structural issues underlying U.S. society. He emphasized that the "free and open international order," which has long relied heavily on the United States, should now be supported in cooperation with like-minded countries.

Robert Ward delivered the keynote speech entitled "The Global Reset--new paradigms for Japan and the UK." His analysis suggested that the structure of the post-Cold War era, characterized by globalization accelerated by China's accession to the WTO in 2001 and supported by massive U.S. consumer demand leading to China's trade surplus (and the U.S. trade deficit), is no longer sustainable. He argued that the global landscape is shifting from a focus on efficiency to one that prioritizes resilience, and from globalization to regionalization, signaling the end of the post-Cold War period and the transition to a new phase.

In this context, he highlighted the UK's institutional engagements in the Indo-Pacific region, such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, CPTPP, (economic), Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, AUKUS, (security), and the Five Eyes alliance (intelligence). He stressed the need for Japan and the UK to strategically align and complement each other in supporting a rules-based order. As U.S.-China decoupling may intensify and China is expected to strengthen ties with the Global South, he stated that large middle powers such as Japan and the UK have responsibility to uphold the international order based on the rule of law.

Following the keynote speech, a panel discussion moderated by Kawashima Shin, Executive Director of Research, NPI featured panelists Robert Ward; Hatakeyama Kyoko, Professor, University of Niigata Prefecture; and Hosoya Yuichi, Senior Fellow, NPI.

Professor Hatakeyama stated that amid increasing uncertainty due to intensifying U.S.-China rivalry in the fields of security and economics, there is growing importance for global middle powers like Japan and the UK to bring like-minded countries together and exercise joint leadership. Senior Fellow Hosoya reflected on the diplomatic history of Japan and the UK, noting that the current bilateral relationship enjoys deeper trust and mutual understanding than during the Anglo-Japan Alliance of the early 1900s. He expressed hope that the UK will continue to convey the strategic importance of the Indo-Pacific, even as NATO-first thinking gains momentum in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The discussion also addressed the evolving international economic order, taking into account the Trump administration's tariff measures and decoupling from China as well as China's pivot in trade relations from developed countries to the Global South. The panelists actively debated the future direction of the international economic order and the roles Japan and the UK should play. As the security field expands beyond traditional domains of land, sea, and air to include the information space and cyberspace, and as disinformation and malinformation proliferate, the importance of shared values and narratives grounded in these values that support the international order was again recognized.

Closing Remarks

In his closing remarks, NPI Vice President Yanase Tadao reflected on his experience in Japan-U.S. trade negotiations. He reaffirmed the importance of maintaining a constant awareness of Japan's relationships with Europe, including the UK, and Southeast Asia, particularly during challenging periods in Japan-U.S. relations.

Speakers and Panelists

◆ Keynote Speaker

　Robert Ward, Director of Geo-economics, Japan Chair; Senior Fellow for Japanese Security Studies at The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)